First year of the weighted H-1B lottery: registrations fall to 211,600, entry-level selections just 17.7%
FY2027 was the first H-1B season to weight selection by wage level. Eligible registrations fell 38.5% from the year before, and the share of selected beneficiaries with a U.S. advanced degree rose to 71.5%. USCIS has not yet released full selection rates by wage level.
Key points
- The rule: Level I registrations enter the pool once, Level II twice, Level III three times and Level IV four times; finalized Dec. 29, 2025, effective Feb. 27, 2026.
- Results: 211,600 eligible registrations (343,981 for FY2026); 71.5% of selected beneficiaries held a U.S. advanced degree, up from about 57%; Level I accounted for just 17.7% of selections.
- DHS estimates: a random lottery gives every level about a 29.6% chance; weighting cuts Level I to about 15.3% and raises Level IV to about 61.2%.
- History: after peaking at 758,994 for FY2024, registrations fell three years in a row amid beneficiary-based selection, the $215 fee and the $100,000 proclamation.
How we got here
FY = U.S. federal fiscal year. Beneficiary-based selection since FY2025; $215 fee since FY2026; first weighted selection in FY2027.
Source: USCIS. Chart by Hibee.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| FY21 | 269,424 |
| FY22 | 301,447 |
| FY23 | 474,421 |
| FY24 | 758,994 |
| FY25 | 470,342 |
| FY26 | 343,981 |
| FY27 | 211,600 |
The H-1B program has 85,000 new visas a year: 65,000 under the regular cap and 20,000 reserved for holders of U.S. master’s or higher degrees. Electronic registration began with FY2021, and eligible registrations climbed from 269,424 that year to 758,994 for FY2024. Of the FY2024 total, 408,891 were for beneficiaries registered by more than one employer, prompting USCIS fraud investigations.
USCIS then tightened the process: selection by unique beneficiary, with passport information, starting with FY2025; a registration fee of $215, up from $10, starting with FY2026; and, in September 2025, the $100,000 proclamation raised costs for beneficiaries abroad. Eligible registrations fell from 470,342 for FY2025 to 343,981 for FY2026 and 211,600 for FY2027.
How weighted selection works
DHS published the final rule on Dec. 29, 2025; it took effect Feb. 27, 2026. Selection is still by unique beneficiary, but each registration is weighted by the Department of Labor OEWS wage level that matches the offered position: Level I enters the pool once, Level II twice, Level III three times and Level IV four times.
Source: DHS estimates in the weighted selection rule (Federal Register 2025-23853). Chart by Hibee.
| Item | Random lottery | Weighted lottery |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | 29.6% | 15.3% |
| Level II | 29.6% | 30.6% |
| Level III | 29.6% | 45.9% |
| Level IV | 29.6% | 61.2% |
DHS estimated that under a random lottery every wage level has roughly a 29.6% chance of selection; under weighting, Level I falls to about 15.3% and Level IV rises to about 61.2%.
How the first year went
Source: USCIS, as compiled by Wolfsdorf and Fragomen. Chart by Hibee.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Selected with a U.S. advanced degree (FY2026) | 57.0% |
| Selected with a U.S. advanced degree (FY2027) | 71.5% |
| Level I share of selections (FY2027) | 17.7% |
USCIS announced on July 17 that it had received enough petitions to meet the FY2027 cap and would not run a second selection. Published results so far: 71.5% of selected beneficiaries held a U.S. advanced degree, up from about 57% a year earlier, and only 17.7% of selected registrations were at Level I. The White House’s September proclamation added that the share of registrants with at least a U.S. master’s degree rose from 45.1% for FY2026 to 66.1% for FY2027. USCIS has not published full selection rates by wage level.
The research group TRAC notes that because registrations did not previously capture wage levels, DHS estimated the wage distribution from LCAs filed only after selection, which biases the rule’s probability estimates. The real effect will be clearer once USCIS releases complete data.
What it means for you
- Wage level is the key variable for FY2028. The level chosen at registration must match the later LCA and actual pay, or the petition can be denied or revoked.
- New graduates are mostly at Level I or II, so their odds are diluted; consider cap-exempt employers, O-1 and other paths in parallel.
- FY2028 registration is expected in March 2027; whether the $103,265 fee rule is final by then also matters.
Timeline
- USCIS releases FY2024 data; multiple registrations trigger fraud investigations
- Beneficiary-based selection begins with FY2025
- Registration fee rises to $215 for FY2026
- Weighted selection final rule published
- Rule takes effect
- FY2027 registration and first weighted selection
- USCIS releases registration totals and the selection profile
- USCIS announces the FY2027 cap is met, with no second selection
Sources
- Federal Register: Weighted Selection Process (2025-23853)
- Fragomen: FY2027 cap reached
- Wolfsdorf: FY2027 lottery results
- SHRM: USCIS registration data by year
- Erickson Immigration Group: FY2026 registration data
Research and further reading
- TRAC: Data problems behind the weighted lottery and the $100,000 fee
- Doran, Gelber and Isen (2022), “The Effects of High-Skilled Immigration Policy on Firms: Evidence from Visa Lotteries,” Journal of Political Economy. Uses the lottery as a natural experiment to study how winning additional H-1B visas affects firms’ hiring and innovation.
Wondering what this means for your case?
Hibee’s team can assess it against your status, timeline and employer.
This article reflects public information as of Oct. 2, 2026. It is for general information only and is not legal advice. Hibee is not a law firm; for your specific case, rely on the latest official guidance and a licensed attorney.
Related coverage
H-1B $100,000 fee extended for a year, but two federal courts have made it unenforceable
On Sept. 18 the White House extended the proclamation through Sept. 21, 2027. Federal courts in Massachusetts and Northern California have since set aside the policies used to collect the fee. USCIS and consulates are not collecting it now; the final outcome rests with the appeals courts and possibly the Supreme Court.
New H-1B executive order makes employers’ layoffs from the past year a factor in review
Executive Order 14431, signed Sept. 18, directs the Labor, Homeland Security and State departments to consider at the LCA, petition, visa and entry stages whether a sponsoring employer laid off — or plans to lay off — similarly situated U.S. workers in the past year. The Labor Department must begin reviewing past LCAs within 30 days.
OPT fee proposal published: $70,000 for initial OPT, $30,000 for each later period, paid by schools
DHS published its OPT fee proposal in the Federal Register on Oct. 8. Schools would pay $70,000 for each student’s initial OPT and $30,000 for each later OPT period, including the STEM OPT extension, and could pass the cost on to students or employers. Comments are due Nov. 9; until a final rule takes effect, OPT works as before.
